The Nacilbupera Guzzle

Whoever examines with attention the history of the dearths and famines … will find, I believe, that a dearth never has arisen from any combination among the inland dealers in corn, nor from any other cause but a real scarcity, occasioned sometimes perhaps, and in some particular places, by the waste of war, but in by far the greatest number of cases by the fault of the seasons; and that a famine has never arisen from any other cause but the violence of government attempting, by improper means, to remedy the inconveniences of a dearth. (Adam Smith, The Wealth of Nations IV.5.44)

Wednesday, January 4, 2012

Iowa Caucus Takehome: Ron Paul Easily Defeats Obama

In studying the Iowa Caucus entrance polling, Ron Paul now has definitive proof of what he has been preaching all along as supported through numerous polls:  he is the candidate who could best defeat Obama.  In examining both the FoxNews and CNN entrance polling we find Dr. Paul doing well in areas where the GOP has struggled:  young voters, urban areas, among the poor, and among people who aren't influenced by ads.  (If Iowa had any measurable ethnicities we would find he does well among races, too!)

But most notably in the polling is the support among Independents for Rep. Paul:  An outstanding 43% of independent voters--more than double any other candidate--voted for the good Congressman!  One can only imagine what would happen in a general election when Dr. Paul wins the GOP nomination:  not only would Obama be defeated but with this kind of support from Independents, it would be no contest.  States typically off hands for any GOP candidate would come into play.  I'm talking big time like Ronald Reagan time here:  California, New York, Oregon, even Hawaii would have HUGE possibilities of turning Ron Paul Red. States Romney or Santorum can't even begin to waste a dime on.  Ron Paul WON the California GOP straw poll. Paulians are everywhere.  This isn't the Romney United States of New Hampshire and Utah.  Ron Paul has NATIONAL support; he's a people's candidate loved by those who are defending us in the military and sacrifice their lives over our insipid provocations, symptomatic of a domineering American Empire consumed by a Military Industrial Complex.

I don't know whether the Party will see this or not.  We don't study out issues but go with whatever our favorite FoxNews commentator is.  We don't read the Constitution we embrace; we don't think for ourselves. We pick one mass media and trust it like the Bible.  We're busy and don't have time to truly study out and do our own homework.  I know I've been there.  We are changing.  Slowly.  We're getting that just because Romney spends the most money doesn't mean he's the best or most electable candidate.

And what is the Party going to do with people like me who won't vote for Romney because we have watched him and know his business experience isn't running a business and creating jobs or producing cars like his father: it's mergers and acquisitions.  That's not the business skillset we need to run the country, we don't need to merge with Mexico or acquire Iraq!  Remember being a "businessman" is NOT by itself any better than any other profession.  Indeed, Romney can't even come up with a proposal to balance the budget his first year!  Sounds to me like he needs to go back to Harvard and learn some business budgeting!  And if Romney can't get our own party together, let alone appeal to independents, we're looking like another four years of Obama.  Is not then a vote for Romney is a vote for Obama?  Is that what we are trying to do as a Party to get Obama another 4 years by nominating Romney???  If indeed a vote for Romney helps Obama, then is it not only the right but the duty of every Republican to find someone else to whom to give their sacred vote and Romney's duty to bow out of the race and endorse someone who does have a plan to balance the budget their first year?

From a purely electability standpoint, Ron Paul is a GOP dream candidate and the only GOP candidate who could produce a landslide victory over Obama in 2012.


Update 1/7:  More interesting analysis

Update 1/9:  I'm telling you folks, if Republicans would just rally behind Ron Paul not only would we save the country, but Paul would be above 50% vs Obama and this election would be in the bag.  Take a look as Paul scores 47% Percent of all Independents  (CBS Poll) and yet thanks to the mass media is barely known and even less understood.  If Republicans want a winner in 2012, the only hope is Ron Paul.  Look, I understand some of you are going to have to hold your nose when you vote for Paul because you worry too much about the bomb in Iran, but read this: I love George Washington Except for his Foreign Policy by Michael Maharrey at the 10th Amendment Center and perhaps like myself and Michael you too will begin to see why Dr. Paul is much more right than wrong on foreign policy.

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

I'm having trouble finding a single national poll where Ron Paul beats Obama. This might be the single worst piece of election analysis I've come across so far this cycle.