Election Wrapup

John Curtis elected Provo Mayor!
Race tonight was a wild one as PR36 with a 41% best-of-all-voter-precinct-turnouts dumped in early voting 4:1 for Clark giving Clark a huge early 60%/40% over Curtis. This was Clark's stronghold and as Clark had represented these voters as State Rep. in District 63. But Curtis came back winning comfortably in the end with 53% of the vote and winning 35 out of 49 precincts. Our PR20 had a respectable 26% turnout with Curtis losing by a mere 6 votes. Yet for PR20 this is a Curtis victory as residing in our boundaries was former mayoral contestant Don Allpin (and posterity) who came in 3rd in the primaries and endorsed Clark on Oct 24th.

Maine votes down same-sex marriage!
Leading 53% to 47% with 87% reporting, voters in Maine gave a voter veto to a bill passed by their legislature that would have allowed same-sex marriage in the state. No matter how liberal the state, whenever the decision has been put to the voters instead of a few liberal judges, same sex marriage has been defeated and tonight was no exception.

Bob McDonnell elected VA gov in landslide; Republicans sweep trifecta of seats!
With all precincts reporting McDonnell won 59% to 41% bringing with him a Republican Lt. Gov. and A.G. in a state that went for Obama just 12 months ago. Just last week, Obama had "campaigned" for McDonnell's opponent Deeds by saying: "He may not be perfect -- my wife reminds me I'm not. (Applause.) She is, just like our spouses are perfect, but we're not. (Laughter.) You know, Creigh, sometimes his tie gets a little askew, and you know, his hair is a little -- (laughter)..." (Yahoo News) We don't think the patronizing of Deeds by Obama helped Deeds at all.

Chris Christie(R) elected NJ governor!

How a conservative Republican can win a dark blue state like NJ was extremely encouraging for conservatives in 2010. NJ wanted their highest-in-the-union property taxes cut and were fed up with Corzine and the flight of business from the state. Obama had his clout snubbed here as well with multiple plugs for Corzine while Christie racked in 49% of the vote and led Corzine by 5%.

Doug Hoffman loses to Bill Owens

In a gut-wrencher for conservatives, with 92% reporting Hoffman loses to Owens 45% to 49%. Conisdering the disarray of the campaign and Scozzafava who withdrew receiving 5% of the vote, there is much to be proud of in this loss. The district will vote again next year and if Owens dares to vote for a public option and the GOP puts up a Conservative, Owens might just be a pop on the 4th of July.

Dave Harmer loses to John Garamendi

With 50% reporting, Harmer is losing 55% to 40% to Lt. Governor and carpetbagger Garamendi who, like Hoffman, doesn't live in the district. Getting Harmer elected was our biggest challenge going into election day and obviously Californians despite their May referendums just haven't had enough of folks who promise a better life through raising taxes. If it were just District 10's taxes he were raising, we probably wouldn't even bother with the post.

What next...
Tonight was a huge bounceback from the losses suffered twelve months ago. It also shows where we need to shore up support and educate on the evils of Socialistic ideas in getting ready for 2010, which officially starts....well, now! For starters, we can begin by rallying at the Utah State Capitol on Saturday, Nov. 14th, for a combined 9/12 and Utah Tea Party rally. Let us use our victories to motivate us to replace Bennett, throw out Harry Reid, and get some good Conservative Republicans back in both houses of our Congress in 2010.

Nacilbupera vs. Maddow: the video

We made this video as a response to promote the truth behind Maddow's false gay marriage-lowers-divorce assertion. Please watch/rate/share. Thanks.

Rachel Maddow Misrepresents Massachusetts Divorce Statistics In Support of Same-Sex Marriage

In the above broadcast segment this week Rachel Maddow of MSNBC reports:

"...New government provisional statistics show that in 2008 Massachusetts had the lowest divorce rate in the country. Ta-Da! The rate of divorces in Massachusetts was 2.2 per thousand when gay people started getting married in Massachusetts. The rate of divorces per thousand is now down even further to 2.0 per thousand. That's the lowest divorce rate in the county. In fact Massachusetts divorce rates are now down to pre-WWII levels--1940. So awkwardly, turns out gay marriage is a Defense of Marriage Act."

Maddow's conclusion that gay marriage stifles divorce didn't maks much sense to us so we broke it down to see if she were correct and came up with the following four points with which we take issue:

Point #1: Maddow's conclusion that the MA divorce rate is 2.0 per thousand is false.

As Maddow premises without pause or caution for the listener, the 2008 Massachusetts divorce statistics are provisional. These statistics are published by the CDC and are found here. The graphic below is taken directly from table 2b near the bottom of the link page:

From this table, we gather that Massachusetts had 12,992 provisional divorces in 2008. The divorce rate is calculated by dividing that number into the population of MA from the 2000 census 6.3M and multiplying by 1000. The resulting divorce rate figure (12992/6.3M x 1000) is 2.o46 or rounded down to the "2.0 per 1000" as Maddow quotes.

The footnote #1 cautions: "Figures based on monthly counts and may be underreported." Indeed it cautions:

There is considerable variability among the states in the procedures that are used to submit the counts of marriages and divorces to NCHS and in the extent to which the states update their counts of marriages and divorces as new information is received. Therefore, counts vary in their completeness. Marriage and divorce counts, unlike other provisional data, may be updated after the end of a data year if final counts are provided by the state.

Thus the CDC, unlike Maddow's glaring omission, cautions in saying that the number could be larger, but that is the count they have so far. What is concerning is the huge disparity in MA divorces between the provisional December 2008 figure of 147 and the actual December 2007 figure of 1006--a difference of 859 divorces or reduction of 85% versus the prior year. No other state figures such a prominent decline for December year-over-year (check for yourself!) begging the questions:

Are the Massachusetts provisional divorces for December 2008 underreported?
If so, could the impact of underreported divorces impact the entire year?

Although we don't know for sure the answer to the first question, the second is answered with a resounding "yes." If the actual December 2008 divorces were, for example, equal to December 2007, the total number of divorces in MA would climb to 13, 851 (12,992+859) the MA divorce rate for the entire year would equal 2.2 per 1000--which is coincidentally, the same exact MA divorce rate Maddow correctly cites as the divorce rate before legalized MA same-sex marriage.

Point #1 concludes that although Maddow correctly cites the word "provisional" in her premise, her conclusion is flawed because the condition is dropped. Maddow could have correctly concluded "If the provisional statistics--which the CDC notes may be understated--are correct, the divorce rate in MA will drop to 2.0 per 1000."

Point #2: Divorce is slightly on the decline nationally

Let's examine the national divorce rate:

2004 = 3.7 (see CDC report here for 2004-2006 figures)
2005 = 3.6
2006 = 3.6 or 3.7 (measured two ways)
2007 = 3.6 (see table A2 here)
2008 = 3.5 (provisional)

A logical conclusion from this data is that divorce nationally has been on a small decline during the time since MA legalized same-sex marriage. All things equal, MA should realize a decline as well. In order to support Maddow's conclusion that MA same-sex marriage contributes to the decline of divorce rates, additional data would needed to show how MA declined more than other states.

Point #3: Massachusetts historically has the lowest divorce rate in the nation.

Maddow's "Ta-Da" fact that Massachusetts had the lowest divorce rate in the country for 2008 is trite news. In fact, it would be noteworthy "Ta-Da" if Massachusetts didn't have the lowest divorce rate. By examining historical statistics, MA is clearly stingy on divorces compared to any other state perhaps foremost due to the massive numbers of Catholics in the state. Legalized same-sex marriage has nothing to do with Massachusetts' 2008 divorce rate viz-a-viz other states.

Point #4: Massachusetts divorce rate actually increased after passage of same-sex marriage.

Again, by examining the CDC's historical statistics on Massachusetts' divorce rates we find the following divorce rates per 1000 population:

2004 = 2.2
2005 = 2.2
2006 = 2.3
2007 = 2.3

Thus we see that the divorce rate actually increased in 2006 and 2007 from its 2.2 level Maddow cites. But Maddow neglects to mention this increase and focus only on the 2008 number which is, as we stated (point #1 above), provisional. The latest non-provisional--and therefore wholly accurate--numbers is for year 2007 and indicate that while the country is seeing modest decreases in the divorce rate (point #2 above), Massachusetts is experiencing modest increases in the divorce rate!

In conclusion, could it be that Maddow, herself openly gay (wikipedia), has misrepresented the facts to support the gay agenda of legalized same-sex marriage? Is in reality the exact opposite happening that same-sex marriage isn't defending or preserving marriage but contributing to divorce? Because of blatant misrepresentations of fact such as this by Maddow, Nacilbupera does not rely on Maddow nor the MSNBC network for accurate reporting. But what say you?

NH Governor "Flinch" Signs Gay Marriage Into Law

Nacilbupera believes marriage was instituted among humanity by God to provide men and women with companionship and the happiness and blessing of children, while providing children with the happiness and blessing of having a Mother and a Father.

Yet today in New Hampshire, the once wildly-popular Democratic Governor John Lynch signed into law HB 73 which coupled with HB 436 legalizes homosexual marriage. Obviously this is a sad day especially considering that Lynch had already previously signed a civil unions bill.

But scandal lies behind the sadness, for the "gay victory" was wrought in corruption. First, Lynch did an about face on one of the most important issues before the people. He campaigned as a supporter of marriage between "a man and a woman" but signed the first bill reaching his desk approving gay marriage. Nacilbupera has already called out our own Governor Huntsman on a broken promise; and although admittedly Nacilbupera knows of no specific promise made by Lynch to veto gay marriage, Nacilbupera feels that Lynch should have been true to his clearly stated position on such a serious issue. Because of his dishonest approach to this, Lynch merits his nickname "Flinch" as New Hampshirers have labeled him.


Second, a Committee was established to work out details of the proposed law including exclusion rights of religious groups. The Committee had to vote unanimously but when Republican Senator Sheila Roberge refused to sign, Democratic Senate President Sylvia Larsen (pictured) violated Senate rules and simply replaced Senator Roberge with a Democrat who voted in favor. For this illegality, Senator Larsen earns a well-deserved Nacilbupera Political Opprobrium Onus. Nacilbupera also predicts that this law will be brought before the New Hampshire Supreme Court, who should invalidate the law if nothing else based on its illegal scheming.

Finally, Nacilbupera protests the way in which a centuries-old law was thrown under the bus by a Democratically-controlled New Hampshire Legislature and Governor. Where is the voice of the citizenry of New Hampshire when the elected Governor Flynched on his position and the Legislature founded the bill in corruption? Nacilbupera urges states everywhere to adopt State Constitutional Amendments protecting marriage between a man and a woman.